Supercomputer predicts each of Europe’s top five league winners this season

There is no plausible counterargument to the claim that European countries are home to the finest domestic football leagues in the world. Fans, analysts, and sports statisticians would all agree that the English Premier Leaguethe Italian Serie Athe German Bundesliga, the Spanish La Ligaand the French Ligue 1 are the finest leagues in the world.

This is why it is of utmost importance to football experts everywhere to maintain tabs on the clubs that are generally considered to be the favorites to win their domestic league championships. Last year, despite considerably more uneven standings at this time, there were still fierce head-to-head championship contests, and this season should have even more.

Since the 2022 World Cup was held in Qatar during the middle of the aforementioned leagues’ seasons, and the winter transfer market will close at the end of January, the stakes have never been greater in any of Europe’s major soccer leagues.

Supercomputer makes Europe’s top five leagues winners predictions

Let’s lay the groundwork for the next five months, which are sure to be action-packed. FiveThirtyEight have mid-season predictions for the top five European leagues, with their picks already in.

Which club has the most chances to win the Premier League?

Manchester City average the most anticipated goals, the fewest expected goals against, shots, shots against, touches within the opponent’s penalty area, touches inside their own penalty area, shares of final-third possession, and possessions earned in the attacking third in the Premier League. They are considered the best team in the league despite being five points off of first with almost a third of the season remaining, with 50 percent chances to lift another EPL title.

Which club has the most chances to win La Liga?

Barcelona have managed to keep nine clean sheets in 15 La Liga games. According to FBref, they also have the greatest expected-goal differential among Europe’s top five leagues, by a wide amount. Even though they are tied with Real Madrid in points and behind the latter on the tiebreaker, they are still the favorites (at 67 percent) to win the title since they have been the greatest club in Spain overall this season.

Which club has the most chances to win Serie A?

Through the first few days of November 2022, it seemed as if Naples would win Serie A. They were undefeated, with 13 wins out of a possible 15. All of this was supported by strong fundamental statistics, but it suddenly broke down in their match against Inter on Wednesday. This season, the Partenopei’s dominance in Italy and their first-place finish in a difficult UEFA Champions League group left little doubt that they were one of the top five teams in Europe. Now they have 68 percent of winning their first Serie A title since 1990.

Which club has the most chances to win Ligue 1?

In line with expectations, Paris Saint-Germain have a 92 percent chance of claiming their 11th Ligue 1 crown. An interesting fact is that they had been outscoring their opponents by 2.4 goals per 90 minutes with Lionel Messi on the pitch, or 1.73 goals better than they are without him on the field. That’s a longer absence than any of his colleagues di lui had, and PSG drew and then lost their first two games following the World Cup without the Argentine.

Which club has the most chances to win the Bundesliga?

In contrast to past seasons, Bayern‘s advantage this year is just four points. In contrast, the Bavarians have a goal difference of +36 through 15 games. The following six clubs in the standings can’t even add up to that. It would be quite unlikely that Bayern won’t keep winning the German league title for a record 11 consecutive seasons, with the probability going up to 93 percent.


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