Premier League predictions: Jones Knows thinks Manchester United can enter Premier League title race with win over Manchester City | Football News

It feels like a pivotal weekend at the top and bottom of the Premier League – how does our tipster Jones Knows see it all unfolding?

Aston Villa vs Leeds, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Leeds are far from perfect, but when you back them you know you’re still in with a chance of collecting even if they fall behind in a match. Jesse Marsch is quite one-dimensional as a coach but his teams do know how to effectively throw the kitchen sink at a team when chasing a game. In recent games against Bournemouth, Manchester City, West Ham and Cardiff, their attacking data after falling behind has rocketed.

They averaged 13 shots every 45 minutes or so to a backdrop of 1.6 of expected goals in those matches – a hefty return. And, they managed to turn around a 1-3 deficit to Bournemouth, claw two goals back at Cardiff in a game they deserved to win and one back at West Ham – again, a game they did enough in attacking areas to land maximum points.

With that in mind, a speculative punt at 16/1 that is worth a second look is for Leeds to win this game from behind.

Friday 13th January 7:00pm

Kick off 8:00pm


SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Manchester United vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm

Making sweeping assumptions on 90 minutes of football is a dangerous game, but it was hard not to raise an eyebrow at how mediocre Manchester City were in the midweek at Southampton. City lose games but they rarely get outplayed in every department.

Of course, a reaction could be forthcoming here. However, they are taking on a team that have won 11 of their last 12 games either side of a 3-1 defeat vs Aston Villa. Those looking to take the 4/5 with Sky Bet on an away win may want to think twice.

Although I wouldn’t put anyone off a United result, with the double chance available at Evens, my money will be playing the cards and goals market.

Only one of City’s last 14 away games against ‘big six’ opposition, barring Liverpool, have produced four or more goals. City’s attack isn’t exactly purring right now either. After scoring 33 goals in their opening nine Premier League games (3.7 per game), City have scored just 12 in their last eight (1.5 per game) and fired a blank at Saints without even registering a shot on target. All this equates to the under 3.5 goals line at 4/9 with Sky Bet being more than fair enough.

Manchester United to be shown most cards at 4/5 also looks a great bet to attack.

I always like backing the opposition for most cards in a game where Manchester City could be expected to struggle. In 10 of the last 11 domestic games where City haven’t won, the opposition have seen more cards shown – and the only game where that didn’t land was the Premier League defeat to Brentford where the card score was 2-2.

And just drawing down the basic card data from this season points heavily towards United outgunning City when it comes to cards shown.

United have been shown the most yellow cards of any team this season (42) with Erik ten Hag’s approach having the undercurrent of being a bit nasty – nothing wrong with that. Yet, strangely they don’t tend to draw yellow cards off the opposition with their tally of 22 yellow cards against the lowest racked up by any team. City’s players have drawn 39 yellows off the opposition – only bettered by Newcastle and Everton.

United should win the cards race – and stand a fair chance of maximum points too in a low-scoring affair. A title tilt might just be on the cards.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Brighton vs. Liverpool, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Taking a pro-Brighton, shots and goals stance was my original plan for what should be a seriously-entertaining afternoon at the Amex but it seems others agree. All three angles of attack have been priced up much skinnier than anticipated by the markets, so we’ve got to be creative in order to hunt out the value.

Such is the way Brighton attack under Roberto De Zerbi, scoring 17 goals in their last six games, monitoring the prices around their forward line for shots and goals is always a savvy tactic. And look who we’ve stumbled upon here.

It’s Solly March.

Solly March celebrates after scoring Brighton's third goal against Everton
Image:
Solly March celebrates after scoring Brighton’s third goal against Everton

Liverpool remain a malfunctioning machine without the ball and are allowing teams a huge amount of high quality chances on their goal. Look at the last 12 games for example, and they are averaging 5.4 shots on target granted per match.

I’d expect Brighton to hit that average in this one so it makes perfect sense to think that March, who remains playing in a very attack-minded role down the left and has scored twice in his last three games, will be a threat.

His shot on target price at Evens with Sky Bet is one to consider – as is his goalscorer price of 7/1. No player has played more minutes for Brighton under De Zerbi than March so the chances of him being substituted are low which is another positive when making the March argument.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Everton vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm

Southampton are due to win at Everton, who are unbeaten in the last 17 meetings between the teams at Goodison Park. And this looks a fantastic time to be heading there, especially on the back of two straight wins that have lifted the mood at St Mary’s. Nathan Jones is an infectious character and his teams – when high on confidence to play aggressively – are usually quite hard to stop. Everton may find that here if the Saints arrive with the same approach as they did against Manchester City in midweek.

James Ward-Prowse played in a much-advanced role in that 2-0 win over the champions, almost as a second striker. He was excellent at dictating the press and popped up in some very promising positions in and around the box. It makes sense for a player with his finishing ability to be playing higher and Jones may have just found a savvy way to utilize his skillset. Such is Ward-Prowse’s threat from attacking free-kicks and being the designated penalty taker too, his prices across his shot and goal output are well worth snapping up against an Everton defense that have shipped more shots than anyone this season.

Ward-Prowse has had three shots on target and two goals in his three appearances for Jones in the Premier League, so backing him to have a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet and taking the 100/30 anytime goalscorer price are bets with serious potential.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Nottingham Forest vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Since Nottingham Forest were dismantled 4-0 by Leicester in October, Steve Cooper has shown just what a shrewd operator he is by completely revamping the style of football he so desperately wants to play to give Forest a chance of survival.

Cooper has made Forest tough to beat in a tight defensive unit that lends itself to low scoring games at the City Ground with six of their last seven home fixtures in all competitions falling under the 2.5 goals line.

This game looks set to go the same way with Leicester arriving without James Maddison and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall – both of whom played huge roles in the Foxes’ resurgence before the World Cup break.

Since the restart, Leicester have scored just two goals in their five fixtures across all competitions as confidence and rhythm is lacking in forward areas. Backing the 11/10 with Sky Bet on the ‘no’ for both teams to score covers a lot of likely correct scores at an odds-against price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Wolves vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Julen Lopetegui hasn’t yet a statement victory as Wolves boss at Molineux but one is brewing judged on the performance levels his team have shown at various points of matches.

Aston Villa couldn’t cope in the first half of their 1-1 draw with Lopetegui’s side who are playing with greater attacking intent and freedom than under Bruno Lage. That was also the case against Liverpool in the FA Cup where they were unfortunate not to beat Jurgen Klopp’s men.

This looks like a fine opportunity for them to register maximum points. West Ham remain plodding along under David Moyes with no real signs that a significant change in their fortunes is going to surge them up the table. Theres an exciting side in there somewhere. However, the Hammers have won just two of their last 17 Premier League away games (D3 L12) since January 2022 – at Aston Villa and Norwich. That alone makes the 17/10 with Sky Bet on an away look awfully short up against an opposition that are on the improve.

Wolves on the draw-no-bet market at 5/6 with Sky Bet is therefore the way in with the 100/30 on a Wolves win by one-goal also worth a second look – five of their last wins have been by that margin .

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Brentford vs Bournemouth, Saturday 5.30am, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Saturday 14th January 5:00pm

Kick off 5:30pm


Bournemouth somehow remain outside the Premier League relegation zone, despite losing seven of their last eight league games. Not for long.

Losing their goalkeeper Neto to injury has had a huge impact on their season. Previously high-quality chances were being offered up but stopped by the Spanish stopper, but since Mark Travers has stepped in, Bournemouth are shipping goals at an alarming rate. Travers has conceded 39 goals in 14 Premier League appearances (that includes previous seasons) – and only one Premier League goalkeeper has ever conceded 40+ goals in their first 15 appearances when David Watson did for Barnsley in 1997/98.

Brentford aren’t the most reliable when tagged with favoriteism in a game having won just two of their nine Premier League fixtures against bottom-half sides but their set-piece prowess will be a likely route to goal against this timid Bournemouth defence, who have shipped a league-high 13 goals from set pieces this season. Ben Mee to score first at 14/1 with Sky Bet is a runner.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm

Prediction to follow…

SCORE PREDICTION: xx

Newcastle vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Sunday 15th January 1:00pm

Kick off 2:00pm


Prediction to follow…

SCORE PREDICTION: xx

Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Prediction to follow…

Sunday 15th January 4:00pm

Kick off 4:30pm


SCORE PREDICTION: xx

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