Liverpool can make it three wins from three Premier League matches since the World Cup by beating Brentford as Jones Knows takes aim at the next set of fixtures.
Brentford vs Liverpool, Monday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
There is a bit of a weird correlation between how many times Liverpool catch players offside and their results. It seems the healthier the average of opposition offsides, the better Liverpool’s results are.
There is logic to it as the higher the team press, which is affected by confidence, the more Jurgen Klopp’s side can pin a team in and create good quality chances. In the three seasons they amassed more than 91 points, they topped the charts for offsides against, averaging around 3.5 per match. That average dropped to 2.50 per match when they picked up just 69 points in the disappointing 2020/21 season and has dropped to just 1.9 per match this season as Klopp’s men sit way off the pace.
However, performances are picking up, to the extent they look capable of winning this one, and so are the offsides against figure. Leicester were caught offside five times as the Liverpool high line looked to be back to its aggressive nature and Villa were flagged three times on Boxing Day.
So, with the prices not yet readjusting to the improved Liverpool performances in the offsides against markets, it’s time to back Brentford to rack up the offsides. Bryan Mbeumo was caught offside twice in both meetings between the two teams last season and with the possible absence of Ivan Toney, the focus will be on him to see more of the play and dart in behind that Liverpool line. He is a whopping 5/4 with Sky Bet just to be caught offside once. Also, Brentford racked up 11 offsides in total across the two meetings last season as their direct style against Liverpool does result in plenty of offside scenarios.
They are 13/8 for three or more in this game, which looks a superb value play too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Brentford to be caught offside three or more times & Bryan Mbeumo one or more offsides (5/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Any winners for Jones Knows?
- Best Bet: Bukayo Saka to score first (8/1)
- Aston Villa beat Tottenham (4/1)
- Aston Villa to score first (15/8)
- Brentford to beat West Ham (7/2)
- Brentford to have two or more first half shots on target (5/4)
- Both teams to score in Liverpool vs Leicester (4/5)
Arsenal vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7.45pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Arsenal could be 10 points clear in the Premier League title race by the time Manchester City visit Chelsea on Thursday at Stamford Bridge. Win here and they’ll go favorites in the market for the first time this season. This is getting pretty real now.
I haven’t really considered their title challenge a serious one until their win over Brighton. Playing with such confidence and authority at such a tricky opponent with the pressure of going seven points clear suggests to me they are ready for the heat of a title battle. The doubt remains about their squad depth, especially in central midfield but while all are fit and firing, they are almost an automatic back at home when trading around Evens – no matter the opposition.
They are the only Premier League side with a 100 per cent record at home this season, winning seven out of seven and stretch it back further, it’s 10 home wins on the spin in the league, scoring 32 goals.
This is obviously a huge opportunity too for Newcastle – but Eddie Howe won’t be interested in making this a free-flowing affair as that will suit the Gunners. Howe has built an incredibly defiant defensive structure and that must be key to their chances here. This season, Howe’s men have conceded the fewest goals (11), kept the most clean sheets and have shipped the joint fewest open play goals (7). Remarkable numbers, really.
This leads me to a low scoring encounter so in order to boost that Arsenal price, I’m happy to add under 3.5 goals in the match, so we can get an Arsenal-based win bet at 13/8.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Everton vs Brighton, Tuesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton just feel too short in this one at 21/20 with Sky Bet. I’m really enjoying watching them play under Roberto De Zerbi but there is far less control than there was under Graham Potter – games can descend into a bit of chaos at any point. Since taking over, De Zerbi’s side are conceding an average of 1.9 goals per game which should offer hope to Everton of getting a result despite their obvious problems in front of goal.
The return of Dominic Calvert-Lewin does help in that regard.
When he is fit to start under Frank Lampard, Everton are a different beast at Goodison Park, winning four of their six home games. The average goals scored per-game shoots up from 0.6 without Calvert-Lewin to 2.0 with him.
They are worth an interest at 6/4 with Sky Bet in the draw no bet market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leicester vs Fulham, Tuesday 7.45pm
If you offered me 6/5 with Sky Bet on a Leicester home win against Fulham at the start of the season, hands would have been snapped off. However, both teams have been on different, surprising, trajectories with Fulham eight points healthier than Leicester.
I’ve been expecting Fulham’s results to plateau due to their galling expected goals against numbers but Marco Silva has kept them in fine form. I’m staying clear of the match results market – if pushed, I’d play the draw – and want to showcase the shot prices for Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall in what should be a free-flowing, shots-heavy game.
The energetic Leicester midfielder looked to be given more license in the absence of James Maddison against Liverpool, scoring with one of his three shots on goal. He’s a generous 3/1 with Sky Bet to repeat that feat by firing three shots on the Fulham goal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester United vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Bournemouth are regressing back to the mean of their expectations now after an early burst of results under Gary O’Neil.
They were batted from pillar to post in the first half against Crystal Palace, conceding twice from 10 shots on their goal – the game was lost from there as they slipped to a sixth defeat in their last seven games.
Their underlying data still has them ranked as most certainly a team likely to be finishing in the bottom three. The Cherries have had the fewest shots (137), lowest possession (39.2 per cent) and lowest expected total goals (12.8) in the Premier League this season. And a goalkeeper in Mark Travers who has now conceded a goal every 31 minutes on average in the Premier League (36 in 1125 minutes).
It explains why they are the favorites for relegation despite being out of the bottom three and ranked as a 10/1 shot to win this clash with United. I’m fully expecting the home side to fill their boots but as always in such mismatches, finding a betting angle is difficult with such skinny prices on offer. In the end, keeping it simple and backing the in-form Marcus Rashford to score for the fourth game running at 5/4 with Sky Bet makes perfect sense.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1
Southampton vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm
Is it too early in the season for a six-pointer? Well, both teams at the time of writing are odds-on for the drop so it’s easy to class this a game of an important magnitude. And usually in these situations, teams are too concerned about not losing the match rather than going out to force the issue.
The result didn’t go Nathan Jones’ way at Fulham but his side did restrict the Londoners to a low expected goals number with just 0.86 worth of non-penalty expected goals shipped at Craven Cottage, plus the opening goal was a very unfortunate one for the Saints to concede. He’ll be demanding similar defensive assurance in this one against a team that are the lowest away scorers in English football with just one goal scored on the road this season. Eight of the last 11 matches between teams in the relegation zone on or after Matchday 17 of a season have seen under 2.5 goals scored. That looks the smart play here at 8/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Leeds vs West Ham, Wednesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
David Moyes can point to a loss of form in his key players this season for West Ham’s stodgy run of results.
Jarrod Bowen has been a guilty party on that front but there were hugely promising signs from him in the defeat at home to Brentford as he was the one desperately trying to inject some urgency into the side with a dominant performance that deserved a goal.
He had seven touches in the opposition box and four strikes at goal – no West Ham player had more when assessing those metrics. The goals have dried up this season for Bowen – he’s scored just two – but this is a player who found the net 20 times in the previous two seasons which catapulted him into England contention.
Catching when he’s about to hit form could prove a profitable strategy as he’s being overlooked in the goalscorer markets such is his recent record. Leeds are happy to afford space to opposition attacking players and this might be the time to catch Bowen at 100/30 with Sky Bet to score in a game where the draw looks the sensible shout.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Aston Villa vs Wolves, Wednesday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
As rivalries go, this one would not hold a candle to many across the world – but with both Birmingham and West Brom down in the Sky Bet Championship, this game does feel a bit spicier. Fans need a derby fix and this clash provides it.
And recent history of meetings do paint the picture of some bad blood. In the past six games in the Premier League, there have been 35 yellows and two red cards shown which works out to an average of 65 booking points per match.
Under the Villa Park lights, I can foresee cards with the 50 or more booking points line worth an interest and Aston Villa being hard to beat once again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham, Wednesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Tottenham’s performance against Aston Villa will have sent alarm bells ringing out. The lack of desire, togetherness and quality was eye-opening – backed up by the metrics where they created a pathetic 0.23 of expected goals in the second half when tasked with chasing the game.
An angle I like to exploit against teams that look dysfunctional and perhaps at the end of a managerial cycle is the opposition to make significant gains at set pieces. Despite Palace being one of the least threatening teams from such situations this season with an expected goals figure of just 2.92 from set pieces, I’m happy to snap up the 28/1 with Sky Bet about Marc Guehi scoring a header. He is usually the point of contact from corner and free-kick situations and looks a big price to add to his tally of two goals since the start of last season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Chelsea vs Manchester City, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
If Manchester City play anywhere near their intense best then it’s hard to see how Chelsea can get anything out of this one. And the markets agree, with City all the rage at 8/13 with Sky Bet to pick up three points.
Graham Potter’s side remain meandering in this transition phase where a lack of intensity in their game is making them very easy to look past when it comes to making outright match predictions. Jamie Carragher called them “soft” on commentary during the 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest – a fair assessment on a team that conceded a very basic goal from a set piece, something which was highlighted by yours truly in the match prediction.
Pep Guardiola’s side carry a huge threat from set pieces themselves, so Chelsea look vulnerable again from conceding via such a method of attack. My eyes are drawn to John Stones at 14/1 with Sky Bet to score. He hit the post in the draw with Everton but can go one better here.