While traditional fantasy football formats have dominated the landscape, managers can find numerous ways to play the game they love. Underdog Pick’em contests allow managers to put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
Here are the top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Here, the more selections you add to your entry, the higher the payout.
The levels are two players for 3x, three for 6x, four for 10x, and finally, five for 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry.
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With Underdog Fantasy, it’s a brand new season every week, no matter how your other leagues are going at the moment. Sign up today and get a 100% deposit bonus of up to $100. As for my recommendations, below are my top Underdog Pick’ems for Sunday Night Football in Week 11.
Patrick Mahomes Higher Than 294.5 Passing Yards
Anytime we get to see Patrick Mahomes on primetime is a treat. Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns with a pick last week and has been sensational when the lights have been brightest this year, as you’d expect.
In four primetime games, Mahomes is averaging 305.5 passing yards with 11 total touchdowns. Since 2020, Mahomes (307.3) and Herbert (285.4) rank first and second in passing yards per game in primetime starts (minimum two starts).
Although Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster are out for Sunday night, the combination of Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, plus Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield should be more than enough for Mahomes.
Los Angeles is 12th in pass DVOA and 14th and EPA per dropback, but Mahomes is the type of player whom you can throw out the stats for, as he’s too talented. I’ll be taking the higher on his passing yards than him as one of my Underdog Pick’ems for Sunday Night Football.
Isiah Pacheco Higher Than 56.5 Rushing Yards
Last week, Isiah Pacheco played on a season-high 56% of snaps and recorded 16 of 17 backfield carries, rushing for 82 yards. Even though Pacheco puts up a goose egg in the target column, none of that matters for us, as all we are focused on is his rushing projection of him.
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I don’t think that there should be too much of an issue against the Chargers, as Pacheco should see between 15 to 20 carries on Sunday night. He’s 24th in yards after contact per attempt and faces a defense that ranks 30th in yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, 29th in DVOA, and 29th in success rate. Pacheco will build off his career-high game from last week and clear his Underdog Pick’em projection.
Jerick McKinnon Higher Than 27.5 Receiving Yards
This feels like cheating, which usually means a trap, but I’m taking the bait. Last week, McKinnon played on nearly 40% of the snaps and has put together back-to-back games with six receptions on eight targets while averaging 48 yards per game.
McKinnon has seen three or more targets in every game since Week 5 and has 29 yards or more in each of his last four games. He has a 9.6% target share and faces a Chargers defense that is tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns allowed and is 28th in DVOA against receiving backs. With both RBs having such diverse roles, I still feel comfortable that both should have plenty of volume, with McKinnon’s coming through the air.
Austin Ekeler Higher Than 5.5 Receptions
For total transparency, you will likely have more options available on Underdog when you read this than I do right now. The only two players available are Justin Herbert and Ekeler.
The reason for that is the uncertainty surrounding both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. After missing several games, the two were limited on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to full participation on Friday.
They’re trending in the right direction, but no decision has been made, and until that point, we’re not going to have a full slate of projections. With that said, even if Williams and Allen are active, I still love the volume of Austin Ekeler.
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His 22.3% target share sits first amongst running backs, averaging nine targets and 7.4 receptions per game. Ekeler also has more than 5.5 receptions and all but two games this year.
No defense has allowed more receptions or receiving yards to running backs this year than the Chiefs, who come into the week 26th in DVOA. Ekeler shouldn’t have too much of an issue clearing his 5.5 reception projection on Sunday Night Football for Underdog Pick’ems.